The New York Times, which obtained a recent draft of the plan, said it describes a worst-case scenario in which the flu would kill more than 1.9 million Americans, put 8.5 million in hospitals, and cost more than $450 billion. The administration has said it has 4.3 million treatment courses of oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and is aiming for 20 million. However, infectious disease expert Michael T. Osterholm said the draft plan obtained by the Times is out of date. “There have been tremendous improvements in the plan over the last week to 10 days,” an Oct 9 report in the Washington Post quoted Osterholm as saying. He is director of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, publisher of this site. Osterholm confirmed that the plan predicts a death toll as high as 1.9 million, with as many as half of all Americans getting sick. The new draft predicts that an emerging pandemic in Asia, where widespread avian flu has killed more than 60 people and generated fear of an epidemic, would be likely to reach US shores in a few months or even weeks, the Times said in an Oct 8 report. Quarantines and travel restrictions, while recommended, probably would not postpone the disease’s arrival “by more than a month or two.” According to the Times, the plan says the nation should have the capacity to produce 600 million doses of vaccine within 6 months, more than 10 times the current capacity. It also calls for a national stockpile of 133 million treatment courses of antiviral drugs. One section of the plan, the Times reported, describes a hypothetical scenario in which severe respiratory illness erupts in a village overseas in April, reaches the United States in June, and triggers small outbreaks around the nation by July. When scientists isolate the virus, as the scenario goes, they determine that the avian flu vaccine developed in advance will provide only partial protection. Aug 26, 2004, CIDRAP News story on earlier draft of the US pandemic plan Release of the draft plan has been expected for weeks. HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt, now visiting Southeast Asia to promote pandemic preparedness, said the plan would be released in a few days, according to an Associated press (AP) report published today. Under the plan, he told the newspaper, the military probably would be used to help move critical supplies and guard vaccination centers. But the document foresees only a small role for quarantines, and many decisions on how to manage disruptions and shortages would be made by local, not national, officials. Leavitt is accompanied on his tour by World Health Organization Director-General Lee Jong-Wook. On the crucial question of who would get vaccine first in a pandemic, the plan’s answer is workers who make the vaccines and flu drugs, along with medical personnel caring for flu patients, the Times story said. Following them would be the elderly and severely ill, pregnant women, transplant and AIDS patients, and parents of babies. Firefighters and government leaders would be next. Those numbers suggest that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is taking a more somber view of the risks than it did in the previous draft plan, released in August 2004. That document cited earlier estimates that pandemic flu could cause between 89,000 and 207,000 deaths in the United States. The document says a pandemic could overwhelm hospitals, touch off riots at vaccination clinics, and lead to power and food shortages, the newspaper said. Until recently, the plan regarded a pandemic as “more like an earthquake or hurricane,” he told the Post. But a pandemic is an event that unfolds over 12 to 18 months, and the plan is now “in flux,” he said. In related news, Leavitt said during his Southeast Asian visit that the United States is pleased with Thailand’s cooperation in battling avian flu, according to an Agence France-Presse report today. Leavitt said the US wants “to have that same relationship with others in the world.” Oct 10, 2005 (CIDRAP News) A not-yet-released version of the Bush administration’s plan for dealing with an influenza pandemic predicts that such an event could exact an enormous toll in life and wealth, according to recent newspaper reports. See also: But according to the Post story, HHS spokeswoman Christina Pearson said the agency is still getting comments on the plan, and releasing it now would be “totally premature.”
View this post on Instagram Another one of the outstanding talents competing under the KSW banner, Soldic is now 9-1 over his last 10 — and avenged that loss — and 15-3 overall. The 23-year-old middleweight has only been the distance three times in his career and has collected a finish in 14 of his 15 victories, which clearly establishes him as an entertaining upstart to watch in 2019 and beyond.Join DAZN and watch Canelo plus more than 80 fight nights a yearLike Gamrot (and Tomas Narkun), Soldic is one of those fighters who could draw interest from the UFC or Bellator MMA in the not-too-distant future, but KSW has traditionally done a great job of taking care of its homegrown talent, so don’t expect the Polish promotion to let him go without a fight. Usman is a problem for anyone in the division — a powerhouse wrestler with outstanding conditioning and continually improving striking with the swagger of a man who knows he’s destined for greatness. In each of his last two appearances, “The Nigerian Nightmare” has faced fighters coming off losses to current top contender Colby Covington and both times, he’s turned in more dominant, more commanding performances than “Chaos” mustered.Join DAZN and watch Canelo plus more than 100 fight nights a yearWhile there are surely other established fighters out there whom Usman could fight in the first half of 2019 — Stephen Thompson and Darren Till come to mind — there is no reason for the streaking contender to step into the cage against anyone other than the welterweight champion. If nine consecutive victories capped by back-to-back drubbings of perennial contenders aren’t enough to secure you a shot at gold, something is off.Over the last several years, merit has taken a backseat to marketability when it comes to making championship fights and main events in the UFC, but with fewer bankable draws on the roster than ever before and more talented, but somewhat nondescript contenders queuing up for championship opportunities, 2019 needs to be the year when the UFC goes back to a “Next Fighter Up” approach when it comes to title fights.Pay-per-view numbers are down regardless of how great the matchups are — save for extremely rare occasions — so rather than trying to goose numbers by hustling bigger names into title fights at the expense of competitors who have worked their way up the divisional ladder, get back to the days when the next in line got a shot, no matter if it was Paul Buentello, Patrick Cote or Dan Hardy.Get the title chases moving again. Give contenders their shots in 2019.Flyweight FocusEver since talk of the UFC dissolving the flyweight division came to the forefront after the company traded away former champ Demetrious Johnson and released a few fighters from their contracts, people have been paying greater attention to the 125-pound weight class, recognizing something that has been clear all along — the flyweight division is awesome.This past weekend, Joseph Benavidez scored the rare double-stoppage win over Alex Perez, Kai Kara-France delivered a blistering performance in his promotional debut, and veteran stalwart Wilson Reis got back into the win column, all while more people than ever before sang the praises of the division.It’s great to see and perhaps the UFC will opt to keep a reduced roster around, especially given that Benavidez’s win makes him a perfect candidate to face the winner of the upcoming title clash between Henry Cejudo and TJ Dillashaw, as he outlined here before his bout with Perez.But the harsh reality is that the division is probably going to get shuttered and some of what UFC President Dana White said about the division not catching on is true. There are also a ton of things he left out that contributed to flyweight not becoming a major force for the company — like limited main card and main event opportunities, struggling to promote Johnson or anyone else from the division, a lack of bombastic personalities — but the division didn’t really catch on and we share in a small percentage of the blame for that.All those fight cards that get labeled “mediocre?” There were invariably flyweight fights of consequence on there that got overlooked, undersold and went undiscussed, which makes it hard for those athletes to gain any real traction.Yes, the performances should speak for themselves, but we all know that isn’t the case. Fans listen to what we say, who we’re talking about and how pumped we are about certainly fights and fighters, and we didn’t talk about the flyweights enough, the same way we’re too dismissive of everyone expect the elite contenders in the women’s divisions.Again, it’s great to be backing the flyweights now and arguing for them to stick around, but where was this passionate support when they were doing the same damn things they’ve done over the last couple weeks, but not in danger of getting the axe?“Mighty Mouse” was the most complete fighter on the roster for three or four years and most of the time we talked about him it was centered on how he wasn’t a draw and what could possibly be done to turn him into a draw.The division is probably going to get scrapped; at the very most, a skeleton crew will remain.Both of those outcomes suck, but there is a lesson to be learned here as well: don’t just pay attention and sing the praises of a division and its fighters when they’re circling the drain; give them the love and attention they deserve every step of the way because at least then no one can say people weren’t invested.Worldwide quality at an all-time highI talked about this a couple tapes back, but it bears repeating.The overall depth and quality in MMA right now is unreal. This weekend featured two events by both Bellator MMA and the UFC, plus a terrific KSW event and an LFA show on Friday that featured a couple promising prospects. On top of that, ONE Championship continued dipping into the free agent pool, announcing the signing of “Super” Sage Northcutt.Joke all you want, but the polite and athletic Texan is only 22 and sports an 11-2 record overall, with three straight wins in the UFC. He’s a legit prospect who is only going to keep getting better and there is a very real possibility that letting him walk ends up being a bad look for the UFC.While being a hardcore fight fan takes a lot of time and money these days, the returns have been pretty spectacular over the last few weeks and this last weekend was no different. Each of the UFC events featured some impressive performances and names to remember for next time, the Bellator MMA shows had a bunch of big finishes, and Saturday’s KSW event wrapped with arguably the two best non-UFC fighters of the weekend earning quality victories in championship bouts.Shouts to Tomas Narkun and Mateusz Gamrot.We moan about fight cards and plenty of other things within the MMA bubble all the time, but honestly, this is the best the sport has ever been and it looks like 2019 is going to be an incredible year.Prospect to Watch after this Weekend: Mateusz GamrotAfter shouting him out in the section above, I have to put the full spotlight on Gamrot, who pushed his record to 15-0-1 no contest) with a unanimous decision win over Kleber Koike Erbst at KSW 46 on Saturday in a bout for the vacant featherweight championship. The 27-year-old Polish fighter is now a two-division champion for the promotion, having won the vacant lightweight belt with a similar result against Mansour Barnoui over two years ago.In addition to his wins over Erbst and Barnoui — two solid European talents — Gamrot also holds victories over TUF alums and UFC vets Norman Parke and Andre Winner, and is just now reaching his athletic prime.Sticking with a frequent theme for me, it’s also noteworthy that “Gamer” spends long stretches training with the crew at American Top Team, where there are a host of elite talents in the lighter weight classes on the mats every day. @mateusz_gamrot just moved to 15-0 and now holds the lightweight and featherweight titles in the prestigious KSW promotion. He is a huge asset to the team. A guy who leads by great example. His work ethic is near unrivaled and in every session he seeks out the toughest challenge in the room (Moicano, Covington, Porier, Munoz, etc.) Big Congratulations to him!!! As the saying goes, “Nothing given, everything earned”. He has now earned himself 2 belts and an undefeated record. It’s time for KSW or another major organization to get him a big $$$ fight. #mateuszgamrot #gamer #gametime #ksw #americantopteamA post shared by Mike Brown (@mikebrownmma) on Dec 1, 2018 at 3:14pm PST With all his success, Gamrot will start drawing greater interest from the UFC and Bellator MMA in 2019, although you can be assured that KSW will do everything it can to keep its Polish superstar in the fold for the foreseeable future.Regardless of where he competes, you should be tuning in to see Gamrot’s fight and tracking his performance going forward.Fight of the Weekend: Kevin Aguilar def. Rick Glenn by unanimous decision (TUF 28 Finale)When this card was first announced, this fight wasn’t on the lineup. Hell, it only reached its final form two weeks before the event, but that didn’t stop it from being dope.Originally a bout between Gilbert Melendez and Arnold Allen, Glenn replaced “El Nino” at the start of the month and then Aguilar subbed in for the Brit a couple weeks back. Though it wasn’t part of the plans from the jump, everyone knew it had the potential to be awesome once it came together and man did these two deliver.Aguilar earned a clean sweep of the scorecards, but this was one of those contests that was closer the final tallies suggest. The momentum of the fight shifted midway through the first, when the former LFA standout backed Glenn up with a right hand, but true to his name, “The Gladiator” kept battling.Glenn is one of those guys that I’ve talked about at different times in this space — a veteran stalwart in the middle of the featherweight division who is a tough assignment for everyone and sure to deliver an entertaining performance each time out. The surprising piece of this pairing for some is Aguilar, but anyone that watched him during his LFA days knows “The Angel of Death” is a dynamite addition to the roster.This was a terrific fight and fans should expect more of the same out of these two men in 2019.Submission of the Weekend: Roosevelt Roberts submits Darrell Horcher (standing guillotine choke) at TUF 28 FinaleA couple fights down the road, people will see the description of this finish on Roberts’s resume and just quickly move passed it, since a guillotine choke against a lower-tier lightweight in his UFC debut doesn’t usually give you much reason to pause.However, this was no ordinary guillotine choke. Here’s the finish as it happened: Snatch!Roosevelt Roberts gets the neck and taps Horcher in round 1! 6-0! #TUFFinale pic.twitter.com/AypDNKVv38— UFC (@ufc) December 1, 2018 And now here’s a still to really drive how serious this choke was home: this picture is not rotated Roosevelt Roberts just choked Horcher in this way pic.twitter.com/Otn6I87Yzq— Jolassanda (@Jolassanda) December 1, 2018 Roberts is now 7-0 overall and has never been out of the first round. He looked great on the Contender Series this summer and handled Horcher with ease in his debut, so the lanky lightweight is definitely someone to pay attention to in the future.And really, if you don’t want to see more from a fighter, who hits a choke like that, I really start to question your status as a fan.Knockout of the Weekend: Roberto Soldic def. Vinicius Bohrer by KO at KSW 46I kind of wanted to bestow this honor on Joseph Benavidez this time around since the flyweight veteran was forced to finish Alex Perez twice in the first round to collect his victory, but then “Robocop” went out and deaded Bohrer at KSW 46 and took the first place ribbon home for this weekend. Robocop Soldic just killed a man pic.twitter.com/dCfgRzQ1d2— Jolassanda (@Jolassanda) December 1, 2018 Every week, we’ll release a new MMA mix tape entitled “The Remix” that looks back at not only the biggest stories of the last seven days, but some of the ones that aren’t getting enough attention too, with some weekly awards and a prospect to watch going forward added in for good measure.Contenders need their shots in 2019Friday night in Las Vegas, Kamaru Usman made it clear that he is an elite contender in the UFC welterweight division by registering his ninth consecutive victory in the promotion, wiping out former lightweight champ Rafael dos Anjos.